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蝉時雨の頃となりましたが、皆様にはお変わりなくお過ごしと存じます。
さて少し先になりますが、下記の内容で第8回研究会をソシオネットワーク戦略研究機構と共催で開催いたしますので、皆様、奮ってご参加いただきますようお願い申し上げます。

記

日　時： 2019年9月25日（水） 17:00～18:30
場　所： マルチメディア・ラボ （ソシオネットワーク機構 6F）

報告者： 砂川　武貴　氏（神戸大学経済学部）
（http://www.econ.kobe-u.ac.jp/faculty/fields/projectprof/sunakawa.html）

タイトル： “Credible Forward Guidance” （joint with Taisuke Nakata）

＜要　旨＞
We analyze credible forward guidance policies in a sticky-price model with an effective lower bound (ELB) constraint on nominal interest rates by solving a series of optimal sustainable policy problems indexed by the duration of reputational loss. Lower-for-longer policies— while effective in stimulating the economy at the ELB—are potentially time-inconsistent, as the associated overheating of the economy in the aftermath of a crisis is undesirable ex-post. However, if reneging on a lower-for-longer promise leads to a loss of reputation and prevents the central bank from effectively using lower-for-longer policies in future crises, these policies can be time-consistent. We find that, even without an explicit commitment technology, the central bank can still credibly keep the policy rate at the ELB for an extended period— though not as extended under the optimal commitment policy—and meaningfully mitigate the adverse effects of the ELB constraint on economy activity.

以　上